Premier League 2026/27
AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction
18:30
India time
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Draw 23%
Fair odds for the pick 1.72
In 30 seconds
- Bournemouth 58%, draw 23%, Sunderland 19%: a clear lean.
- Predicted score 1-0; the goals line is finely balanced (2.8 xG).
- Both teams to score: 53%.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Bournemouth
- UK broadcast
- Sky Sports
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
AFC Bournemouth are our pick for Bournemouth vs Sunderland, at 58% (clear lean). The model's likeliest result is 1-0, both teams score in 53% of simulations, and the draw sits at 23%. Kick-off is Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 IST.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Bournemouth
Bournemouth are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.8 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (54% for the over).
Quality gap
Edge: Bournemouth
Bournemouth rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 23%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Expected goals
- 1.86 – 0.97
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 75%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Bournemouth
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win beats it.
- 54%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Over 2.5
2.8 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.
- 11%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Bournemouth 1-0 Sunderland
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
AFC Bournemouth
Expect Bournemouth to stay compact at Vitality Stadium and look for a moment rather than control the game.
Away
Sunderland
Expect Sunderland to stay compact on their trip to Vitality Stadium and look for a moment rather than control the game.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Bournemouth name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Sunderland score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Bournemouth vs Sunderland
AFC Bournemouth take on Sunderland in front of their own fans, and the Wazir Win numbers lean Bournemouth's way. The gap in expected goals (1.86 for Bournemouth, 0.97 for Sunderland) is the clearest signal, and it is what produces our 58% for Bournemouth. Sunderland's best route is to keep it level into the last half-hour, when the draw becomes a live result.
Calendar check: Bournemouth and Sunderland
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Bournemouth play 8 days after their game away at Chelsea on 10 Oct. After this, they go away at Man Utd 7 days after this one. League game 7 of 38.
Sunderland play 8 days after their game at home to Brighton on 10 Oct. After this, they go at home to Leeds 7 days after this one. League game 7 of 38.
They meet again at Stadium of Light on Sat, 15 May 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.
- 10 OctChelsea vs BournemouthStamford Bridge
- 10 OctSunderland vs BrightonStadium of Light
- 18 OctBournemouth vs SunderlandVitality Stadium
- 25 OctMan Utd vs BournemouthOld Trafford
- 25 OctSunderland vs LeedsStadium of Light
More Bournemouth and Sunderland dossiers
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FAQ · 8
AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Wazir Win predicts AFC Bournemouth. Our goals model gives Bournemouth 58%, the draw 23% and Sunderland 19%, which we class as a clear lean.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our likeliest scoreline is 1-0 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-0, at 11%.
What are fair odds for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
On our numbers: Bournemouth 1.72, draw 4.35, Sunderland 5.26. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland kick off in India?
18:30 IST India time on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 (14:00 UK), at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein AFC Bournemouth aage hain: Bournemouth 58%, draw 23%, Sunderland 19%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
What would make Sunderland win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Bournemouth's attack. We give Sunderland 19%.
Where can I watch Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
In the UK it is on Sky Sports. Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
We put both teams to score at 53%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals is 54%.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.