Premier League · North London derby
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
19:30
India time
Sat, 01 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Emirates Stadium, London
Draw 21%
Fair odds for the pick 1.54
In 30 seconds
- Arsenal 65%, draw 21%, Spurs 14%: a strong lean.
- Predicted score 1-0; the goals line is finely balanced (2.7 xG).
- It is the North London derby: expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Arsenal
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 4.5-5.5
Who wins Arsenal vs Spurs?
Arsenal are our pick for Arsenal vs Spurs, at 65% (strong lean). The model's likeliest result is 1-0, both teams score in 45% of simulations, and the draw sits at 21%. Kick-off is Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Arsenal
Arsenal are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (50% for the over).
Derby heat
Edge: Draw
The North London derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish closer than the table suggests.
How many goals in Arsenal vs Spurs?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 45%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Expected goals
- 1.92 – 0.76
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Arsenal vs Spurs
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 82%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Arsenal
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Spurs win beats it.
- 72%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is the likeliest script, and four goals would be an outlier.
- 13%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Arsenal 1-0 Spurs
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Arsenal
Arsenal are built to control games. They should hold most of the ball at Emirates Stadium and pin Spurs back for long periods.
Away
Tottenham Hotspur
Well organised and hard to play through, Spurs usually earn results on their trip to Emirates Stadium by winning the midfield battle.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Arsenal name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Spurs score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Arsenal vs Spurs
Tottenham Hotspur head to Emirates Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a strong lean. As the North London derby, form tends to count for less than usual, and we have tightened the numbers accordingly. We project 1.92 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.76 for Spurs; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Arsenal win 65% of them. For Spurs, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Arsenal and Spurs
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Arsenal play 7 days after their game away at Bournemouth on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Leeds 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.
Spurs play 7 days after their game at home to Hull on 24 Apr. After this, they go at home to Chelsea 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.
These sides already met at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.
More Arsenal and Spurs dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Spurs?
Wazir Win predicts Arsenal. Our goals model gives Arsenal 65%, the draw 21% and Spurs 14%, which we class as a strong lean.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Our likeliest scoreline is 1-0 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-0, at 13%.
What are fair odds for Arsenal vs Spurs?
On our numbers: Arsenal 1.54, draw 4.76, Spurs 7.14. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur kick off in India?
19:30 IST India time on Sat, 01 May 2027 (15:00 UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Arsenal vs Spurs mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 65%, draw 21%, Spurs 14%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Spurs?
We put both teams to score at 45%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals is 50%.
Where can I watch Arsenal vs Spurs?
Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.