Premier League 2026/27
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction
19:30
India time
Sat, 01 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Selhurst Park, London
Draw 26%
Fair odds for the pick 2.44
In 30 seconds
- Palace 41%, draw 26%, Villa 33%: a coin flip.
- Predicted score 1-0; the goals line is finely balanced (2.7 xG).
- Both teams to score: 55%.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Palace
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Palace vs Villa?
Too close to call, with a whisker in favour of Palace. The Wazir Win goals model gives Palace 41%, the draw 26% and Villa 33%, and expects 2.7 goals in all. Our likeliest scoreline is 1-0. Kick-off: Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST at Selhurst Park.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Palace
Palace are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (51% for the over).
Quality gap
Edge: Palace
Palace rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 26%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Palace vs Villa?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Expected goals
- 1.43 – 1.26
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Palace vs Villa
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 67%
Banker
risk
Double chance
Palace or draw
Covers two of the three results; only a Villa win loses.
- 55%
Smart value
risk
Both teams to score
Yes
Both sides project above a goal of expected output; BTTS lands 55% of the time for us.
- 10%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Palace 1-0 Villa
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Crystal Palace
Expect Palace to stay compact at Selhurst Park and look for a moment rather than control the game.
Away
Aston Villa
Villa combine structure with enough quality in the final third to punish mistakes on their trip to Selhurst Park. Midfield control is their foundation.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Palace name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Villa score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Palace vs Villa
Crystal Palace take on Aston Villa in front of their own fans, and the Wazir Win numbers lean Palace's way. The gap in expected goals (1.43 for Palace, 1.26 for Villa) is the clearest signal, and it is what produces our 41% for Palace. Villa's best route is to keep it level into the last half-hour, when the draw becomes a live result.
Calendar check: Palace and Villa
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Palace play 7 days after their game away at Man Utd on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Forest 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.
Villa play 7 days after their game at home to Coventry on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Brentford 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.
These sides already met at Villa Park on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.
More Palace and Villa dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Palace vs Villa?
Wazir Win predicts Crystal Palace. Our goals model gives Palace 41%, the draw 26% and Villa 33%, which we class as a coin flip.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Our likeliest scoreline is 1-0 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.
What are fair odds for Palace vs Villa?
On our numbers: Palace 2.44, draw 3.85, Villa 3.03. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa kick off in India?
19:30 IST India time on Sat, 01 May 2027 (15:00 UK), at Selhurst Park in London. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Palace vs Villa mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Crystal Palace aage hain: Palace 41%, draw 26%, Villa 33%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
What would make Villa win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Palace's attack. We give Villa 33%.
How many goals are expected in Palace vs Villa?
2.7 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 7% of the time.
Will both teams score in Palace vs Villa?
We put both teams to score at 55%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals is 51%.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.