Premier League 2026/27
Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction
01:30
India time
Wed, 03 Mar 2027 · 20:00 UK
Anfield, Liverpool
Draw 20%
Fair odds for the pick 1.52
In 30 seconds
- Liverpool 66%, draw 20%, Villa 14%: a strong lean.
- Predicted score 2-0; goals expected (2.9 xG).
- Both teams to score: 50%.
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Liverpool
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Liverpool vs Villa?
Liverpool are our pick for Liverpool vs Villa, at 66% (strong lean). The model's likeliest result is 2-0, both teams score in 50% of simulations, and the draw sits at 20%. Kick-off is Wed, 03 Mar 2027, 01:30 IST, next day.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Liverpool
Liverpool are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Goals
2.9 expected goals is above the league norm, and the over 2.5 line lands 56% of the time in our simulations.
Quality gap
Edge: Liverpool
Liverpool rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 20%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Liverpool vs Villa?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Expected goals
- 2.07 – 0.85
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Liverpool vs Villa
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 82%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Liverpool
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Villa win beats it.
- 56%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Over 2.5
2.9 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.
- 12%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Liverpool 2-0 Villa
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Liverpool
Liverpool are built to control games. They should hold most of the ball at Anfield and pin Villa back for long periods.
Away
Aston Villa
Well organised and hard to play through, Villa usually earn results on their trip to Anfield by winning the midfield battle.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Liverpool name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Villa score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Liverpool vs Villa
Aston Villa head to Anfield for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a strong lean. We project 2.07 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.85 for Villa; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Liverpool win 66% of them. For Villa, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Liverpool and Villa
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Liverpool play 4 days after their game away at Spurs on 27 Feb. After this, they go at home to Ipswich 10 days after this one. League game 28 of 38.
Villa play 4 days after their game at home to Chelsea on 27 Feb. After this, they go at home to Hull 10 days after this one. League game 28 of 38.
These sides already met at Villa Park on Wed, 30 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.
More Liverpool and Villa dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Liverpool vs Aston Villa: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Liverpool vs Villa?
Wazir Win predicts Liverpool. Our goals model gives Liverpool 66%, the draw 20% and Villa 14%, which we class as a strong lean.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Aston Villa?
Our likeliest scoreline is 2-0 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 12%.
What are fair odds for Liverpool vs Villa?
On our numbers: Liverpool 1.52, draw 5.00, Villa 7.14. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Liverpool vs Aston Villa kick off in India?
01:30 IST, next day India time on Wed, 03 Mar 2027 (20:00 UK), at Anfield in Liverpool. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Liverpool vs Villa mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 66%, draw 20%, Villa 14%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
What would make Villa win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Liverpool's attack. We give Villa 14%.
Where can I watch Liverpool vs Villa?
Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Villa?
2.9 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 5% of the time.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.