Australia tour of South Africa, 2026 · match 6 of 6
South Africa vs Australia 3rd Test prediction
19:30
India time
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
Newlands, Cape Town
Fair odds for the pick 1.92
In 30 seconds
- South Africa at 52%: a slight lean (fair odds 1.92).
- Pitch suits bowlers; South Africa projected to post the bigger total.
- South Africa have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- South Africa
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- two-paced, bowler-friendly
- Favours
- Bowlers
Who wins the SA vs AUS 3rd Test?
South Africa take this one on our numbers: 52% to 48% over Australia, which is a slight lean. Expect 259 from South Africa and 256 from Australia at Newlands, where the bowlers should hold the upper hand. Play starts Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
Variable bounce and a slowing surface make hitting through the line risky. The best innings here will be built on running hard between the wickets. Both sides will lean on the bowlers, so the deeper attack matters.
Batting parity
Edge: Even
The batting units grade out almost identically (3 runs apart). Look to the bowlers and the toss for the separation.
Toss call
Edge: Toss winner
The toss winner should bowl and keep the chase on the better version of this pitch.
How many will South Africa and Australia score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a two-paced, bowler-friendly surface at Newlands.
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
The Wazir Win bet slip for SA vs AUS
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 52%
Banker
risk
Match result
South Africa to win
Our most likely outcome. If the bookmaker's price is shorter than 1.92, the value has gone.
- 60%
Smart value
risk
South Africa day-one total
Over 244.5
Our projection sits near 259, comfortably clear of 244.5, so a slow start can still land it.
- 20%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
David Miller (South Africa)
Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing South Africa vs Australia?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
David Miller79
Built for long innings
Kagiso Rabada82
Hits the deck hard
Australia
Marnus Labuschagne93
Built for long innings
Glenn Maxwell87
Gives the side a fifth bowler
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If David Miller is left out
We would trim South Africa by around five points, turning this into a coin flip.
If Australia win the toss
On a pitch where the toss matters, that alone moves a couple of points Australia's way.
If rain takes out a day or more
The draw becomes the likeliest result and our win call loses most of its value.
The story of South Africa vs Australia
This is the last fixture of Australia tour of South Africa, 2026, so nobody is holding anything back. South Africa come in at 52% because their batting and bowling both match these two-paced, bowler-friendly conditions a little better. South Africa play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. Australia are far from out of it at 48%, but they will need their best players to deliver at the same time.
On the toss: The toss winner should bowl and keep the chase on the better version of this pitch.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 3rd Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026.
Newlands in Cape Town hosts the 3rd Test on Sat, 31 Oct 2026: fixture 6 of 6 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 2nd Test, was played 7 days before this one at St George's Park in Gqeberha, which means a travel day to Cape Town in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
No fixtures follow in this series, so expect both sides to pick their best available XI.
Also at Newlands on the Wazir Win calendar: 3rd ODI: South Africa vs Bangladesh (01 Dec), 3rd Test: South Africa vs England (29 Dec) (2 fixtures in all).
- 24 Oct2nd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaSt George's Park
- 31 Oct3rd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaNewlands
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FAQ · 9
SA vs AUS 3rd Test: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win South Africa vs Australia?
Wazir Win predicts South Africa, with a 52% win chance against 48% for Australia. We class that as a slight lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a two-paced, bowler-friendly pitch at Newlands should play.
What are fair odds for South Africa in the SA vs AUS 3rd Test?
Our 52% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.92 for South Africa and 2.08 for Australia. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the SA vs AUS 3rd Test start in IST?
It is scheduled for Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST at Newlands, Cape Town. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Newlands?
We read it as two-paced, bowler-friendly, which should favour the bowlers. Variable bounce and a slowing surface make hitting through the line risky. The best innings here will be built on running hard between the wickets.
What should the captain do at the toss in SA vs AUS?
The toss winner should bowl and keep the chase on the better version of this pitch. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for Australia to win?
Australia need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 48%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if South Africa change their best XI.
South Africa vs Australia mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein South Africa ka palda bhaari hai: 52% chance, Australia ka 48%. Match Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Cape Town ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch two-paced, bowler-friendly hai, yaani gendbazon ka palda bhaari rahega aur score kam rahega. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
How accurate are Wazir Win cricket predictions?
Every number is a probability. A 52% favourite should still lose about 48 times in 100, so use our call as one input and set a budget before you play.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.