Australia tour of South Africa, 2026 · match 5 of 6
South Africa vs Australia 2nd Test prediction
19:30
India time
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
St George's Park, Gqeberha
Fair odds for the pick 1.79
In 30 seconds
- South Africa at 56%: a clear lean (fair odds 1.79).
- Pitch suits bowlers; Australia projected to post the bigger total.
- South Africa have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- South Africa
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- two-paced, bowler-friendly
- Favours
- Bowlers
Who wins the SA vs AUS 2nd Test?
Back South Africa to win the SA vs AUS 2nd Test. Wazir Win rates their chance at 56% (clear lean), with Australia on 44%. Projected totals: South Africa 254, Australia 261. Conditions at St George's Park should favour the bowlers. First ball: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
A grinding pitch. Wickets will come from mistimed drives and miscued pulls more than from unplayable deliveries. Both sides will lean on the bowlers, so the deeper attack matters.
Toss call
Edge: Toss winner
Chasing is the smarter play, before the surface gets slower still.
Batting parity
Edge: Even
Only 7 runs split the projected totals, so this is close to a dead heat with the bat. One big individual innings is the likeliest tiebreaker.
How many will South Africa and Australia score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a two-paced, bowler-friendly surface at St George's Park.
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
The Wazir Win bet slip for SA vs AUS
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 56%
Banker
risk
Match result
South Africa to win
The model's headline call. Only worth it at odds of 1.79 or longer.
- 61%
Smart value
risk
South Africa day-one total
Over 239.5
A 239.5 line leaves a buffer of roughly 14 runs against our 254 projection.
- 23%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
David Miller (South Africa)
Turns fifties into hundreds. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing South Africa vs Australia?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
Kagiso Rabada94
Hits the deck hard
David Miller90
Turns fifties into hundreds
Australia
David Warner90
Built for long innings
Mitchell Marsh86
Gives the side a fifth bowler
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Kagiso Rabada is left out
We would trim South Africa by around five points, turning this into a coin flip.
If Australia win the toss
On a pitch where the toss matters, that alone moves a couple of points Australia's way.
If rain takes out a day or more
The draw becomes the likeliest result and our win call loses most of its value.
The story of South Africa vs Australia
Match 5 of 6 is where Australia tour of South Africa, 2026 starts to take shape. South Africa come in at 56% because their batting and bowling both match these two-paced, bowler-friendly conditions a little better. South Africa play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. For Australia to win, they need early wickets or one innings of real substance; anything less and the favourites should control it.
On the toss: Chasing is the smarter play, before the surface gets slower still.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 2nd Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026.
St George's Park in Gqeberha hosts the 2nd Test on Sat, 24 Oct 2026: fixture 5 of 6 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 1st Test, was played 8 days before this one at Kingsmead in Durban, which means a travel day to Gqeberha in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
Up next: the 3rd Test, 7 days after this match at Newlands in Cape Town.
Also at St George's Park on the Wazir Win calendar: 2nd ODI: South Africa vs Bangladesh (27 Nov) (1 fixture in all).
- 16 Oct1st Test: South Africa vs AustraliaKingsmead
- 24 Oct2nd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaSt George's Park
- 31 Oct3rd Test: South Africa vs AustraliaNewlands
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FAQ · 9
SA vs AUS 2nd Test: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win South Africa vs Australia?
Wazir Win predicts South Africa, with a 56% win chance against 44% for Australia. We class that as a clear lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a two-paced, bowler-friendly pitch at St George's Park should play.
What are fair odds for South Africa in the SA vs AUS 2nd Test?
Our 56% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.79 for South Africa and 2.27 for Australia. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the SA vs AUS 2nd Test start in IST?
It is scheduled for Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST at St George's Park, Gqeberha. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at St George's Park?
We read it as two-paced, bowler-friendly, which should favour the bowlers. A grinding pitch. Wickets will come from mistimed drives and miscued pulls more than from unplayable deliveries.
What should the captain do at the toss in SA vs AUS?
Chasing is the smarter play, before the surface gets slower still. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for Australia to win?
Australia need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 44%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if South Africa change their best XI.
South Africa vs Australia mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein South Africa ka palda bhaari hai: 56% chance, Australia ka 44%. Match Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Gqeberha ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch two-paced, bowler-friendly hai, yaani gendbazon ka palda bhaari rahega aur score kam rahega. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
How accurate are Wazir Win cricket predictions?
Every number is a probability. A 56% favourite should still lose about 44 times in 100, so use our call as one input and set a budget before you play.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.