Premier League · London derby
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea prediction
01:00
India time
Wed, 06 Jan 2027 · 19:30 UK
Selhurst Park, London
Draw 27%
Fair odds for the pick 2.38
In 30 seconds
- Chelsea 42%, draw 27%, Palace 31%: a coin flip.
- Predicted score 0-1; a low-scoring game expected (2.4 xG).
- It is the London derby: expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Wazir Win pick
- Chelsea
- UK broadcast
- Sky Sports
- Projected cards
- 4.5-5.5
Who wins Palace vs Chelsea?
Too close to call, with a whisker in favour of Chelsea. The Wazir Win goals model gives Palace 31%, the draw 27% and Chelsea 42%, and expects 2.4 goals in all. Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1. Kick-off: Wed, 06 Jan 2027, 01:00 IST, next day at Selhurst Park.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Even
Palace's home crowd is worth about a fifth of a goal, which narrows the gap without erasing Chelsea's quality advantage.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Few goals
Only 2.4 expected goals, so the under is the natural lean: over 2.5 lands just 43% of the time.
Derby heat
Edge: Draw
The London derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish closer than the table suggests.
How many goals in Palace vs Chelsea?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 48%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Expected goals
- 1.08 – 1.32
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Palace vs Chelsea
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 69%
Banker
risk
Double chance
Chelsea or draw
Covers two of the three results; only a Palace win loses.
- 78%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is the likeliest script, and four goals would be an outlier.
- 12%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Palace 0-1 Chelsea
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Crystal Palace
Palace are a pragmatic mid-table team: solid without the ball at Selhurst Park, but short of the creativity to dominate.
Away
Chelsea
A side with title-level depth. Chelsea tend to suffocate opponents on their trip to Selhurst Park, so Palace will need a disciplined, low block.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Chelsea name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Palace score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Palace vs Chelsea
Chelsea head to Selhurst Park for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a coin flip. As the London derby, form tends to count for less than usual, and we have tightened the numbers accordingly. We project 1.08 expected goals for Palace and 1.32 for Chelsea; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Chelsea win 42% of them. For Palace, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Palace and Chelsea
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Palace play 4 days after their game away at Brentford on 02 Jan. After this, they go away at Liverpool 10 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.
Chelsea play 3 days after their game at home to Newcastle on 03 Jan, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Sunderland 10 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.
These sides already met at Stamford Bridge on Wed, 02 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.
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FAQ · 8
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Palace vs Chelsea?
Wazir Win predicts Chelsea. Our goals model gives Palace 31%, the draw 27% and Chelsea 42%, which we class as a coin flip.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Chelsea?
Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.
What are fair odds for Palace vs Chelsea?
On our numbers: Palace 3.23, draw 3.70, Chelsea 2.38. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Crystal Palace vs Chelsea kick off in India?
01:00 IST, next day India time on Wed, 06 Jan 2027 (19:30 UK), at Selhurst Park in London. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Palace vs Chelsea mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Chelsea aage hain: Palace 31%, draw 27%, Chelsea 42%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Where can I watch Palace vs Chelsea?
In the UK it is on Sky Sports. Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
How many goals are expected in Palace vs Chelsea?
2.4 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 9% of the time.
Will both teams score in Palace vs Chelsea?
We put both teams to score at 48%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals is 43%.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.