New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · match 1 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 1st Test prediction
19:30
India time
Wed, 09 Dec 2026
Perth Stadium, Perth
Fair odds for the pick 1.52
In 30 seconds
- Australia at 66%: a strong lean (fair odds 1.52).
- Pitch suits batters; Australia projected to post the bigger total.
- Australia have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- Australia
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- flat, batter-friendly
- Favours
- Batters
Who wins the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?
Back Australia to win the AUS vs NZ 1st Test. Wazir Win rates their chance at 66% (strong lean), with New Zealand on 34%. Projected totals: Australia 285, New Zealand 278. Conditions at Perth Stadium should favour the batters. First ball: Wed, 09 Dec 2026, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears. Both sides will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Batting parity
Edge: Even
Only 7 runs split the projected totals, so this is close to a dead heat with the bat. One big individual innings is the likeliest tiebreaker.
Toss call
Edge: Even
The toss is close to irrelevant. Both sides will back themselves to score heavily either way.
How many will Australia and New Zealand score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Perth Stadium.
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
The Wazir Win bet slip for AUS vs NZ
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 66%
Banker
risk
Match result
Australia to win
The model's headline call. Only worth it at odds of 1.52 or longer.
- 57%
Smart value
risk
Australia day-one total
Over 269.5
A 269.5 line leaves a buffer of roughly 15 runs against our 285 projection.
- 21%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
Marnus Labuschagne (Australia)
Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
Marnus Labuschagne88
Built for long innings
Alex Carey87
Valuable runs at number seven
New Zealand
Glenn Phillips96
Built for long innings
Tim Southee87
Hits the deck hard
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Marnus Labuschagne is left out
We would trim Australia by around five points, turning this into a clear lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain takes out a day or more
The draw becomes the likeliest result and our win call loses most of its value.
The story of Australia vs New Zealand
New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 opens here, so the first real evidence of form on this tour arrives with this match. Australia come in at 66% because their batting and bowling both match these flat, batter-friendly conditions a little better. Australia play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. New Zealand are far from out of it at 34%, but they will need their best players to deliver at the same time.
On the toss: The toss is close to irrelevant. Both sides will back themselves to score heavily either way.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 1st Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
Perth Stadium in Perth hosts the 1st Test on Wed, 09 Dec 2026: fixture 1 of 4 in the series.
As the series opener, there is no head-to-head evidence from this tour yet, so the market leans on reputation.
Up next: the 2nd Test, 10 days after this match at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide.
Also at Perth Stadium on the Wazir Win calendar: 1st ODI: Australia vs England (12 Nov) (1 fixture in all).
- 09 Dec1st Test: Australia vs New ZealandPerth Stadium
- 19 Dec2nd Test: Australia vs New ZealandAdelaide Oval
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FAQ · 9
AUS vs NZ 1st Test: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Australia vs New Zealand?
Wazir Win predicts Australia, with a 66% win chance against 34% for New Zealand. We class that as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Perth Stadium should play.
What are fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?
Our 66% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.52 for Australia and 2.94 for New Zealand. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the AUS vs NZ 1st Test start in IST?
It is scheduled for Wed, 09 Dec 2026, 19:30 IST at Perth Stadium, Perth. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Perth Stadium?
We read it as flat, batter-friendly, which should favour the batters. Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears.
What should the captain do at the toss in AUS vs NZ?
The toss is close to irrelevant. Both sides will back themselves to score heavily either way. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for New Zealand to win?
New Zealand need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 34%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if Australia change their best XI.
Australia vs New Zealand mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 66% chance, New Zealand ka 34%. Match Wed, 09 Dec 2026, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Perth ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly hai, yaani ballebazon ke liye pitch achhi hai, bada score sambhav hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
What totals does Wazir Win project for Australia vs New Zealand?
Australia 261-309 and New Zealand 254-302 in the day-one total, with the biggest scoring burst expected in session 2.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.