New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · match 4 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 4th Test prediction
19:30
India time
Fri, 08 Jan 2027
Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Fair odds for the pick 1.67
In 30 seconds
- Australia at 60%: a clear lean (fair odds 1.67).
- Pitch suits batters; Australia projected to post the bigger total.
- Australia have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- Australia
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- flat, batter-friendly
- Favours
- Batters
Who wins the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?
Back Australia to win the AUS vs NZ 4th Test. Wazir Win rates their chance at 60% (clear lean), with New Zealand on 40%. Projected totals: Australia 284, New Zealand 279. Conditions at Sydney Cricket Ground should favour the batters. First ball: Fri, 08 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears. Both sides will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Batting parity
Edge: Even
The batting units grade out almost identically (5 runs apart). Look to the bowlers and the toss for the separation.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Whatever the call, both teams should get the runs on offer.
How many will Australia and New Zealand score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Sydney Cricket Ground.
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
The Wazir Win bet slip for AUS vs NZ
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 60%
Banker
risk
Match result
Australia to win
Our most likely outcome. If the bookmaker's price is shorter than 1.67, the value has gone.
- 58%
Smart value
risk
Australia day-one total
Over 269.5
Our projection sits near 284, comfortably clear of 269.5, so a slow start can still land it.
- 22%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
David Warner (Australia)
Turns fifties into hundreds. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
Josh Hazlewood82
Hits the deck hard
David Warner92
Turns fifties into hundreds
New Zealand
Finn Allen97
Built for long innings
Tim Southee95
Hits the deck hard
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Josh Hazlewood is left out
We would trim Australia by around five points, turning this into a slight lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain takes out a day or more
The draw becomes the likeliest result and our win call loses most of its value.
The story of Australia vs New Zealand
This is the last fixture of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27, so nobody is holding anything back. The model leans to Australia at 60%, mostly on squad quality and how Sydney Cricket Ground has played in recent seasons. Australia play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. New Zealand's route to an upset runs through the first hour: get on top early and the 40% chance we give them starts to look generous.
On the toss: Whatever the call, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 4th Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney hosts the 4th Test on Fri, 08 Jan 2027: fixture 4 of 4 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 3rd Test, was played 10 days before this one at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, which means a travel day to Sydney in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
No fixtures follow in this series, so expect both sides to pick their best available XI.
Also at Sydney Cricket Ground on the Wazir Win calendar: 4th T20I: Australia vs England (29 Nov) (1 fixture in all).
- 29 Dec3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandMelbourne Cricket Ground
- 08 Jan4th Test: Australia vs New ZealandSydney Cricket Ground
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FAQ · 9
AUS vs NZ 4th Test: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Australia vs New Zealand?
Wazir Win predicts Australia, with a 60% win chance against 40% for New Zealand. We class that as a clear lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Sydney Cricket Ground should play.
What are fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?
Our 60% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.67 for Australia and 2.50 for New Zealand. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the AUS vs NZ 4th Test start in IST?
It is scheduled for Fri, 08 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST at Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Sydney Cricket Ground?
We read it as flat, batter-friendly, which should favour the batters. Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears.
What should the captain do at the toss in AUS vs NZ?
Whatever the call, both teams should get the runs on offer. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for New Zealand to win?
New Zealand need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 40%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if Australia change their best XI.
Australia vs New Zealand mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 60% chance, New Zealand ka 40%. Match Fri, 08 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Sydney ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly hai, yaani ballebazon ke liye pitch achhi hai, bada score sambhav hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
What totals does Wazir Win project for Australia vs New Zealand?
Australia 262-306 and New Zealand 256-302 in the day-one total, with the biggest scoring burst expected in session 2.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.