New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · match 3 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 3rd Test prediction
19:30
India time
Tue, 29 Dec 2026
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Fair odds for the pick 1.49
In 30 seconds
- Australia at 67%: a strong lean (fair odds 1.49).
- Pitch suits batters; Australia projected to post the bigger total.
- Australia have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- Australia
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- flat, batter-friendly
- Favours
- Batters
Who wins the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?
Australia take this one on our numbers: 67% to 33% over New Zealand, which is a strong lean. Expect 289 from Australia and 273 from New Zealand at Melbourne Cricket Ground, where the batters should hold the upper hand. Play starts Tue, 29 Dec 2026, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
A run-fest pitch: true bounce, good carry and little sideways movement. Death bowling and cutters will decide how big the totals get. Both sides will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Neither batting nor bowling first offers a real edge when the pitch stays this good.
Run-scoring edge
Edge: Australia
There is a 16-run cushion in Australia's favour on our projection, the single biggest reason the model leans their way.
How many will Australia and New Zealand score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
The Wazir Win bet slip for AUS vs NZ
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 67%
Banker
risk
Match result
Australia to win
Our most likely outcome. If the bookmaker's price is shorter than 1.49, the value has gone.
- 62%
Smart value
risk
Australia day-one total
Over 273.5
Our projection sits near 289, comfortably clear of 273.5, so a slow start can still land it.
- 22%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
David Warner (Australia)
Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
David Warner89
Built for long innings
Josh Hazlewood88
Hits the deck hard
New Zealand
Finn Allen97
Built for long innings
Matt Henry86
Hits the deck hard
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If David Warner is left out
We would trim Australia by around five points, turning this into a strong lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain takes out a day or more
The draw becomes the likeliest result and our win call loses most of its value.
The story of Australia vs New Zealand
With 1 game of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 still to follow, this match 3 can tilt the series. Australia come in at 67% because their batting and bowling both match these flat, batter-friendly conditions a little better. Australia play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. For New Zealand to win, they need early wickets or one innings of real substance; anything less and the favourites should control it.
On the toss: Neither batting nor bowling first offers a real edge when the pitch stays this good.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 3rd Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne hosts the 3rd Test on Tue, 29 Dec 2026: fixture 3 of 4 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 2nd Test, was played 10 days before this one at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide, which means a travel day to Melbourne in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
Up next: the 4th Test, 10 days after this match at Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney.
Also at Melbourne Cricket Ground on the Wazir Win calendar: 1st T20I: Australia vs England (21 Nov), One-off Test: Australia vs England (11 Mar) (2 fixtures in all).
- 19 Dec2nd Test: Australia vs New ZealandAdelaide Oval
- 29 Dec3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandMelbourne Cricket Ground
- 08 Jan4th Test: Australia vs New ZealandSydney Cricket Ground
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FAQ · 9
AUS vs NZ 3rd Test: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Australia vs New Zealand?
Wazir Win predicts Australia, with a 67% win chance against 33% for New Zealand. We class that as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Melbourne Cricket Ground should play.
What are fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?
Our 67% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.49 for Australia and 3.03 for New Zealand. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test start in IST?
It is scheduled for Tue, 29 Dec 2026, 19:30 IST at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Melbourne Cricket Ground?
We read it as flat, batter-friendly, which should favour the batters. A run-fest pitch: true bounce, good carry and little sideways movement. Death bowling and cutters will decide how big the totals get.
What should the captain do at the toss in AUS vs NZ?
Neither batting nor bowling first offers a real edge when the pitch stays this good. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for New Zealand to win?
New Zealand need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 33%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if Australia change their best XI.
Australia vs New Zealand mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 67% chance, New Zealand ka 33%. Match Tue, 29 Dec 2026, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Melbourne ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly hai, yaani ballebazon ke liye pitch achhi hai, bada score sambhav hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
How accurate are Wazir Win cricket predictions?
Every number is a probability. A 67% favourite should still lose about 33 times in 100, so use our call as one input and set a budget before you play.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.