Premier League 2026/27
AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United prediction
20:30
India time
Sat, 13 Mar 2027 · 15:00 UK
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Draw 25%
Fair odds for the pick 2.44
In 30 seconds
- Newcastle 41%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 34%: a coin flip.
- Predicted score 0-1; the goals line is finely balanced (2.8 xG).
- Both teams to score: 56%.
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Wazir Win pick
- Newcastle
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Too close to call, with a whisker in favour of Newcastle. The Wazir Win goals model gives Bournemouth 34%, the draw 25% and Newcastle 41%, and expects 2.8 goals in all. Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1. Kick-off: Sat, 13 Mar 2027, 20:30 IST at Vitality Stadium.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Even
Bournemouth's home crowd is worth about a fifth of a goal, which narrows the gap without erasing Newcastle's quality advantage.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.8 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (52% for the over).
Quality gap
Edge: Newcastle
Newcastle rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 25%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Expected goals
- 1.32 – 1.46
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Bournemouth vs Newcastle
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 66%
Banker
risk
Double chance
Newcastle or draw
Covers two of the three results; only a Bournemouth win loses.
- 56%
Smart value
risk
Both teams to score
Yes
Both sides project above a goal of expected output; BTTS lands 56% of the time for us.
- 9%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Bournemouth 0-1 Newcastle
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
AFC Bournemouth
Expect Bournemouth to stay compact at Vitality Stadium and look for a moment rather than control the game.
Away
Newcastle United
Newcastle combine structure with enough quality in the final third to punish mistakes on their trip to Vitality Stadium. Midfield control is their foundation.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Newcastle name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Bournemouth score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Bournemouth vs Newcastle
AFC Bournemouth take on Newcastle United in front of their own fans, and the Wazir Win numbers lean Newcastle's way. The gap in expected goals (1.32 for Bournemouth, 1.46 for Newcastle) is the clearest signal, and it is what produces our 41% for Newcastle. Bournemouth's best route is to keep it level into the last half-hour, when the draw becomes a live result.
Calendar check: Bournemouth and Newcastle
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Bournemouth play 10 days after their game at home to Spurs on 03 Mar. After this, they go away at Brentford 7 days after this one. League game 29 of 38.
Newcastle play 10 days after their game away at Forest on 03 Mar. After this, they go at home to Leeds 7 days after this one. League game 29 of 38.
These sides already met at St James' Park on Sat, 05 Sept 2026, making this the return fixture.
- 03 MarBournemouth vs SpursVitality Stadium
- 03 MarForest vs NewcastleCity Ground
- 13 MarBournemouth vs NewcastleVitality Stadium
- 20 MarBrentford vs BournemouthGtech Community Stadium
- 20 MarNewcastle vs LeedsSt James' Park
More Bournemouth and Newcastle dossiers
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FAQ · 8
AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Wazir Win predicts Newcastle United. Our goals model gives Bournemouth 34%, the draw 25% and Newcastle 41%, which we class as a coin flip.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United?
Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.
What are fair odds for Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
On our numbers: Bournemouth 2.94, draw 4.00, Newcastle 2.44. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United kick off in India?
20:30 IST India time on Sat, 13 Mar 2027 (15:00 UK), at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Bournemouth 34%, draw 25%, Newcastle 41%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
What would make Bournemouth win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Newcastle's attack. We give Bournemouth 34%.
Where can I watch Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Newcastle?
2.8 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 6% of the time.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.