Premier League 2026/27
Newcastle United vs Leeds United prediction
20:30
India time
Sat, 20 Mar 2027 · 15:00 UK
St James' Park, Newcastle
Draw 16%
Fair odds for the pick 1.33
In 30 seconds
- Newcastle 75%, draw 16%, Leeds 9%: a strong lean.
- Predicted score 2-0; goals expected (3.1 xG).
- Both teams to score: 46%.
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Newcastle
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Newcastle vs Leeds?
Back Newcastle. Wazir Win makes them 75% to beat Leeds, projects 2.37 to 0.70 in expected goals and calls the score 2-0. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Kick-off: Sat, 20 Mar 2027, 20:30 IST at St James' Park.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Newcastle
Newcastle are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Goals
3.1 expected goals is above the league norm, and the over 2.5 line lands 59% of the time in our simulations.
Quality gap
Edge: Newcastle
Newcastle rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 16%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Newcastle vs Leeds?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 46%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Expected goals
- 2.37 – 0.70
- Half-time call
- 1-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Newcastle vs Leeds
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 89%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Newcastle
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Leeds win beats it.
- 59%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Over 2.5
3.1 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.
- 13%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Newcastle 2-0 Leeds
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Newcastle United
Newcastle combine structure with enough quality in the final third to punish mistakes at St James' Park. Midfield control is their foundation.
Away
Leeds United
Expect Leeds to stay compact on their trip to St James' Park and look for a moment rather than control the game.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Newcastle name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Leeds score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Newcastle vs Leeds
Newcastle United take on Leeds United in front of their own fans, and the Wazir Win numbers lean Newcastle's way. The gap in expected goals (2.37 for Newcastle, 0.70 for Leeds) is the clearest signal, and it is what produces our 75% for Newcastle. Leeds's best route is to keep it level into the last half-hour, when the draw becomes a live result.
Calendar check: Newcastle and Leeds
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Newcastle play 7 days after their game away at Bournemouth on 13 Mar. After this, they go away at Liverpool 21 days after this one. League game 30 of 38.
Leeds play 7 days after their game at home to Brighton on 13 Mar. After this, they go at home to Forest 21 days after this one. League game 30 of 38.
These sides already met at Elland Road on Mon, 14 Sept 2026, making this the return fixture.
- 13 MarBournemouth vs NewcastleVitality Stadium
- 13 MarLeeds vs BrightonElland Road
- 20 MarNewcastle vs LeedsSt James' Park
- 10 AprLiverpool vs NewcastleAnfield
- 10 AprLeeds vs ForestElland Road
More Newcastle and Leeds dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Newcastle United vs Leeds United: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Newcastle vs Leeds?
Wazir Win predicts Newcastle United. Our goals model gives Newcastle 75%, the draw 16% and Leeds 9%, which we class as a strong lean.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
Our likeliest scoreline is 2-0 (half-time 1-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 13%.
What are fair odds for Newcastle vs Leeds?
On our numbers: Newcastle 1.33, draw 6.25, Leeds 11.11. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Newcastle United vs Leeds United kick off in India?
20:30 IST India time on Sat, 20 Mar 2027 (15:00 UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Newcastle vs Leeds mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 75%, draw 16%, Leeds 9%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Leeds?
3.1 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 3, and a goalless draw comes up 5% of the time.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
Where can I watch Newcastle vs Leeds?
Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.