Premier League · Tyne-Wear derby
Sunderland vs Newcastle United prediction
19:30
India time
Sat, 01 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Draw 25%
Fair odds for the pick 1.92
In 30 seconds
- Newcastle 52%, draw 25%, Sunderland 23%: a slight lean.
- Predicted score 0-1; the goals line is finely balanced (2.5 xG).
- It is the Tyne-Wear derby: expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Wazir Win pick
- Newcastle
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 4.5-5.5
Who wins Sunderland vs Newcastle?
Back Newcastle. Wazir Win makes them 52% to beat Sunderland, projects 0.96 to 1.57 in expected goals and calls the score 0-1. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Kick-off: Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST at Stadium of Light.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Even
Sunderland's home crowd is worth about a fifth of a goal, which narrows the gap without erasing Newcastle's quality advantage.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.5 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (46% for the over).
Derby heat
Edge: Draw
The Tyne-Wear derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish closer than the table suggests.
How many goals in Sunderland vs Newcastle?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 49%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Expected goals
- 0.96 – 1.57
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Sunderland vs Newcastle
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 69%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Newcastle
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win beats it.
- 75%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is the likeliest script, and four goals would be an outlier.
- 12%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Sunderland
Sunderland are a pragmatic mid-table team: solid without the ball at Stadium of Light, but short of the creativity to dominate.
Away
Newcastle United
Well organised and hard to play through, Newcastle usually earn results on their trip to Stadium of Light by winning the midfield battle.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Newcastle name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Sunderland score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Sunderland vs Newcastle
Newcastle United head to Stadium of Light for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a slight lean. As the Tyne-Wear derby, form tends to count for less than usual, and we have tightened the numbers accordingly. We project 0.96 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.57 for Newcastle; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Newcastle win 52% of them. For Sunderland, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Sunderland and Newcastle
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Sunderland play 7 days after their game away at Forest on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Brighton 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.
Newcastle play 7 days after their game at home to Ipswich on 24 Apr. After this, they go at home to Coventry 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.
These sides already met at St James' Park on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.
- 24 AprForest vs SunderlandCity Ground
- 24 AprNewcastle vs IpswichSt James' Park
- 01 MaySunderland vs NewcastleStadium of Light
- 08 MayBrighton vs SunderlandAmerican Express Stadium
- 08 MayNewcastle vs CoventrySt James' Park
More Sunderland and Newcastle dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Sunderland vs Newcastle United: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Newcastle?
Wazir Win predicts Newcastle United. Our goals model gives Sunderland 23%, the draw 25% and Newcastle 52%, which we class as a slight lean.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Newcastle United?
Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 0-1, at 12%.
What are fair odds for Sunderland vs Newcastle?
On our numbers: Sunderland 4.35, draw 4.00, Newcastle 1.92. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Sunderland vs Newcastle United kick off in India?
19:30 IST India time on Sat, 01 May 2027 (15:00 UK), at Stadium of Light in Sunderland. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Sunderland vs Newcastle mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Sunderland 23%, draw 25%, Newcastle 52%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Newcastle?
2.5 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 8% of the time.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
What would make Sunderland win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Newcastle's attack. We give Sunderland 23%.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.