Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 · match 3 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 3rd ODI prediction
19:30
India time
Mon, 25 Jan 2027
University Oval, Dunedin
Fair odds for the pick 1.45
In 30 seconds
- New Zealand at 69%: a strong lean (fair odds 1.45).
- Pitch suits batters; New Zealand projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- New Zealand
- Format
- ODI · 50 overs
- Pitch
- flat, high-scoring
- Favours
- Batters
Who wins the NZ vs SL 3rd ODI?
Strong lean: New Zealand. Our model makes them 69% favourites for the 3rd ODI against Sri Lanka at University Oval, a fair price of 1.45. We project New Zealand for 346 and Sri Lanka for 329 on a pitch that favours the batters. Start: Mon, 25 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears. Both sides will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Series pressure
Edge: New Zealand
A win here gives New Zealand control with 5 matches left, and losing would hand Sri Lanka momentum.
Run-scoring edge
Edge: New Zealand
New Zealand project about 17 runs higher in the first-innings total. Over a ODI, a gap like that turns tight games into comfortable ones.
How many will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
Projected runs in each phase of the first innings, on a flat, high-scoring surface at University Oval.
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
The Wazir Win bet slip for NZ vs SL
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 69%
Banker
risk
Match result
New Zealand to win
The model's headline call. Only worth it at odds of 1.45 or longer.
- 58%
Smart value
risk
New Zealand first-innings total
Over 330.5
A 330.5 line leaves a buffer of roughly 15 runs against our 346 projection.
- 25%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
Devon Conway (New Zealand)
Steady hand in a chase. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Devon Conway93
Steady hand in a chase
Rachin Ravindra91
Balances the XI
Sri Lanka
Angelo Mathews90
Balances the XI
Dushmantha Chameera88
Trusted at the end of the innings
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Devon Conway is left out
We would trim New Zealand by around five points, turning this into a strong lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain shortens the match
Fewer overs mean more randomness, which helps the underdog.
The story of New Zealand vs Sri Lanka
Match 3 of 8 is where Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 starts to take shape. The model leans to New Zealand at 69%, mostly on squad quality and how University Oval has played in recent seasons. New Zealand play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. Sri Lanka are far from out of it at 31%, but they will need their best players to deliver at the same time.
On the toss: Whatever the call, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 3rd ODI
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
University Oval in Dunedin hosts the 3rd ODI on Mon, 25 Jan 2027: fixture 3 of 8 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 2nd ODI, was played 5 days before this one at Sky Stadium in Wellington, which means a travel day to Dunedin in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
Up next: the 1st T20I, 4 days after this match at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.
- 20 Jan2nd ODI: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSky Stadium
- 25 Jan3rd ODI: New Zealand vs Sri LankaUniversity Oval
- 29 Jan1st T20I: New Zealand vs Sri LankaHagley Oval
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FAQ · 9
NZ vs SL 3rd ODI: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Wazir Win predicts New Zealand, with a 69% win chance against 31% for Sri Lanka. We class that as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, high-scoring pitch at University Oval should play.
What are fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs SL 3rd ODI?
Our 69% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.45 for New Zealand and 3.23 for Sri Lanka. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the NZ vs SL 3rd ODI start in IST?
It is scheduled for Mon, 25 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST at University Oval, Dunedin. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at University Oval?
We read it as flat, high-scoring, which should favour the batters. Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears.
What should the captain do at the toss in NZ vs SL?
Whatever the call, both teams should get the runs on offer. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for Sri Lanka to win?
Sri Lanka need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 31%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if New Zealand change their best XI.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 69% chance, Sri Lanka ka 31%. Match Mon, 25 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Dunedin ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch flat, high-scoring hai, yaani ballebazon ke liye pitch achhi hai, bada score sambhav hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Who are the key players in New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Devon Conway (New Zealand, steady hand in a chase) and Angelo Mathews (Sri Lanka, balances the xi). Final XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.