Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 · match 7 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 1st Test prediction
19:30
India time
Fri, 12 Feb 2027
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui
Fair odds for the pick 1.49
In 30 seconds
- New Zealand at 67%: a strong lean (fair odds 1.49).
- Pitch suits batters; New Zealand projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- New Zealand
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- flat, batter-friendly
- Favours
- Batters
Who wins the NZ vs SL 1st Test?
Back New Zealand to win the NZ vs SL 1st Test. Wazir Win rates their chance at 67% (strong lean), with Sri Lanka on 33%. Projected totals: New Zealand 275, Sri Lanka 257. Conditions at Bay Oval should favour the batters. First ball: Fri, 12 Feb 2027, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
Hard, even and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. Defend a below-par total here and you are in trouble. Both sides will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Neither batting nor bowling first offers a real edge when the pitch stays this good.
Series pressure
Edge: New Zealand
A win here gives New Zealand control with 1 match left, and losing would hand Sri Lanka momentum.
How many will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Bay Oval.
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
The Wazir Win bet slip for NZ vs SL
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 67%
Banker
risk
Match result
New Zealand to win
Our most likely outcome. If the bookmaker's price is shorter than 1.49, the value has gone.
- 58%
Smart value
risk
New Zealand day-one total
Over 260.5
Our projection sits near 275, comfortably clear of 260.5, so a slow start can still land it.
- 22%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
Glenn Phillips (New Zealand)
Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Glenn Phillips85
Built for long innings
Matt Henry86
Hits the deck hard
Sri Lanka
Sadeera Samarawickrama84
Valuable runs at number seven
Charith Asalanka89
Turns fifties into hundreds
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Glenn Phillips is left out
We would trim New Zealand by around five points, turning this into a strong lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain takes out a day or more
The draw becomes the likeliest result and our win call loses most of its value.
The story of New Zealand vs Sri Lanka
With 1 game of Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 still to follow, this match 7 can tilt the series. The model leans to New Zealand at 67%, mostly on squad quality and how Bay Oval has played in recent seasons. New Zealand play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. Sri Lanka's route to an upset runs through the first hour: get on top early and the 33% chance we give them starts to look generous.
On the toss: Neither batting nor bowling first offers a real edge when the pitch stays this good.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 1st Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui hosts the 1st Test on Fri, 12 Feb 2027: fixture 7 of 8 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 3rd T20I, was played 5 days before this one at Saxton Oval in Nelson, which means a travel day to Mount Maunganui in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
Up next: the 2nd Test, 4 days after this match at Seddon Park in Hamilton.
Also at Bay Oval on the Wazir Win calendar: 4th ODI: New Zealand vs India (19 Nov), 5th ODI: New Zealand vs India (23 Nov) (2 fixtures in all).
- 07 Feb3rd T20I: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSaxton Oval
- 12 Feb1st Test: New Zealand vs Sri LankaBay Oval
- 16 Feb2nd Test: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSeddon Park
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FAQ · 9
NZ vs SL 1st Test: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Wazir Win predicts New Zealand, with a 67% win chance against 33% for Sri Lanka. We class that as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Bay Oval should play.
What are fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs SL 1st Test?
Our 67% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.49 for New Zealand and 3.03 for Sri Lanka. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the NZ vs SL 1st Test start in IST?
It is scheduled for Fri, 12 Feb 2027, 19:30 IST at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Bay Oval?
We read it as flat, batter-friendly, which should favour the batters. Hard, even and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. Defend a below-par total here and you are in trouble.
What should the captain do at the toss in NZ vs SL?
Neither batting nor bowling first offers a real edge when the pitch stays this good. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for Sri Lanka to win?
Sri Lanka need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 33%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if New Zealand change their best XI.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 67% chance, Sri Lanka ka 33%. Match Fri, 12 Feb 2027, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Mount Maunganui ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly hai, yaani ballebazon ke liye pitch achhi hai, bada score sambhav hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
What totals does Wazir Win project for New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
New Zealand 252-298 and Sri Lanka 235-279 in the day-one total, with the biggest scoring burst expected in session 2.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.