Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 · match 1 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 1st ODI prediction
19:30
India time
Sat, 16 Jan 2027
McLean Park, Napier
Fair odds for the pick 1.64
In 30 seconds
- New Zealand at 61%: a clear lean (fair odds 1.64).
- Balanced pitch; New Zealand projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- New Zealand
- Format
- ODI · 50 overs
- Pitch
- balanced, dry
- Favours
- Balanced
Who wins the NZ vs SL 1st ODI?
Clear lean: New Zealand. Our model makes them 61% favourites for the 1st ODI against Sri Lanka at McLean Park, a fair price of 1.64. We project New Zealand for 327 and Sri Lanka for 315 on a pitch that favours neither side. Start: Sat, 16 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
A middle-of-the-road pitch with a little for everyone, so phase totals should land near the usual numbers for the format. Neither attack should be specially advantaged.
Opening-game uncertainty
Edge: Sri Lanka
Nobody has form on this tour yet, which makes openers the least predictable game of any series. A fast start by Sri Lanka would swing the market hard.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this surface.
How many will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
Projected runs in each phase of the first innings, on a balanced, dry surface at McLean Park.
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
The Wazir Win bet slip for NZ vs SL
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 61%
Banker
risk
Match result
New Zealand to win
Our most likely outcome. If the bookmaker's price is shorter than 1.64, the value has gone.
- 59%
Smart value
risk
New Zealand first-innings total
Over 312.5
Our projection sits near 327, comfortably clear of 312.5, so a slow start can still land it.
- 20%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
Lockie Ferguson (New Zealand)
Trusted at the end of the innings. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Lockie Ferguson82
Trusted at the end of the innings
Kane Williamson87
Fast starter at the top
Sri Lanka
Angelo Mathews96
Balances the XI
Charith Asalanka89
Fast starter at the top
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Lockie Ferguson is left out
We would trim New Zealand by around five points, turning this into a clear lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain shortens the match
Fewer overs mean more randomness, which helps the underdog.
The story of New Zealand vs Sri Lanka
Game one of Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 sets the tone for everything after it, and both camps know it. The model leans to New Zealand at 61%, mostly on squad quality and how McLean Park has played in recent seasons. New Zealand play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. Sri Lanka are far from out of it at 39%, but they will need their best players to deliver at the same time.
On the toss: Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this surface.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 1st ODI
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
McLean Park in Napier hosts the 1st ODI on Sat, 16 Jan 2027: fixture 1 of 8 in the series.
As the series opener, there is no head-to-head evidence from this tour yet, so the market leans on reputation.
Up next: the 2nd ODI, 4 days after this match at Sky Stadium in Wellington.
- 16 Jan1st ODI: New Zealand vs Sri LankaMcLean Park
- 20 Jan2nd ODI: New Zealand vs Sri LankaSky Stadium
More cricket dossiers
Ready when you are
Follow this match with your Wazir Win ID
18+ only. Set a budget first and play responsibly.
FAQ · 9
NZ vs SL 1st ODI: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Wazir Win predicts New Zealand, with a 61% win chance against 39% for Sri Lanka. We class that as a clear lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a balanced, dry pitch at McLean Park should play.
What are fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs SL 1st ODI?
Our 61% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.64 for New Zealand and 2.56 for Sri Lanka. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the NZ vs SL 1st ODI start in IST?
It is scheduled for Sat, 16 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST at McLean Park, Napier. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at McLean Park?
We read it as balanced, dry, which should favour neither side. A middle-of-the-road pitch with a little for everyone, so phase totals should land near the usual numbers for the format.
What should the captain do at the toss in NZ vs SL?
Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this surface. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for Sri Lanka to win?
Sri Lanka need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 39%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if New Zealand change their best XI.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 61% chance, Sri Lanka ka 39%. Match Sat, 16 Jan 2027, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Napier ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch balanced, dry hai, yaani bat aur ball mein barabar ki takkar hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Who are the key players in New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Lockie Ferguson (New Zealand, trusted at the end of the innings) and Angelo Mathews (Sri Lanka, balances the xi). Final XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.