Premier League · London derby
Arsenal vs Brentford prediction
01:00
India time
Tue, 05 Jan 2027 · 19:30 UK
Emirates Stadium, London
Draw 17%
Fair odds for the pick 1.35
In 30 seconds
- Arsenal 74%, draw 17%, Brentford 9%: a strong lean.
- Predicted score 2-0; the goals line is finely balanced (2.8 xG).
- It is the London derby: expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Arsenal
- UK broadcast
- Sky Sports
- Projected cards
- 4.5-5.5
Who wins Arsenal vs Brentford?
Back Arsenal. Wazir Win makes them 74% to beat Brentford, projects 2.20 to 0.60 in expected goals and calls the score 2-0. Over 2.5 goals: 53%. Kick-off: Tue, 05 Jan 2027, 01:00 IST, next day at Emirates Stadium.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Arsenal
Arsenal are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.8 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (53% for the over).
Derby heat
Edge: Draw
The London derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish closer than the table suggests.
How many goals in Arsenal vs Brentford?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 40%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Expected goals
- 2.20 – 0.60
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Arsenal vs Brentford
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 90%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Arsenal
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Brentford win beats it.
- 53%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Over 2.5
2.8 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.
- 15%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Arsenal 2-0 Brentford
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Arsenal
Arsenal are built to control games. They should hold most of the ball at Emirates Stadium and pin Brentford back for long periods.
Away
Brentford
Brentford are a pragmatic mid-table team: solid without the ball on their trip to Emirates Stadium, but short of the creativity to dominate.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Arsenal name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Brentford score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Arsenal vs Brentford
Brentford head to Emirates Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a strong lean. As the London derby, form tends to count for less than usual, and we have tightened the numbers accordingly. We project 2.20 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.60 for Brentford; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Arsenal win 74% of them. For Brentford, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Arsenal and Brentford
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Arsenal play 3 days after their game at home to Ipswich on 02 Jan, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go away at Hull 11 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.
Brentford play 3 days after their game at home to Palace on 02 Jan, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Brighton 11 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.
These sides already met at Gtech Community Stadium on Wed, 02 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.
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FAQ · 8
Arsenal vs Brentford: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Brentford?
Wazir Win predicts Arsenal. Our goals model gives Arsenal 74%, the draw 17% and Brentford 9%, which we class as a strong lean.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Brentford?
Our likeliest scoreline is 2-0 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 15%.
What are fair odds for Arsenal vs Brentford?
On our numbers: Arsenal 1.35, draw 5.88, Brentford 11.11. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Arsenal vs Brentford kick off in India?
01:00 IST, next day India time on Tue, 05 Jan 2027 (19:30 UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Arsenal vs Brentford mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 74%, draw 17%, Brentford 9%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Brentford?
We put both teams to score at 40%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals is 53%.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Brentford?
2.8 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 6% of the time.
What would make Brentford win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Arsenal's attack. We give Brentford 9%.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.