Premier League · London derby
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction
01:30
India time
Wed, 03 Mar 2027 · 20:00 UK
Emirates Stadium, London
Draw 20%
Fair odds for the pick 1.47
In 30 seconds
- Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Palace 12%: a strong lean.
- Predicted score 1-0; the goals line is finely balanced (2.7 xG).
- It is the London derby: expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Arsenal
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 4.5-5.5
Who wins Arsenal vs Palace?
Arsenal are our pick for Arsenal vs Palace, at 68% (strong lean). The model's likeliest result is 1-0, both teams score in 43% of simulations, and the draw sits at 20%. Kick-off is Wed, 03 Mar 2027, 01:30 IST, next day.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Arsenal
Arsenal are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (50% for the over).
Derby heat
Edge: Draw
The London derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish closer than the table suggests.
How many goals in Arsenal vs Palace?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 43%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Expected goals
- 2.00 – 0.68
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Arsenal vs Palace
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 85%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Arsenal
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Palace win beats it.
- 72%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is the likeliest script, and four goals would be an outlier.
- 14%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Arsenal 1-0 Palace
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Arsenal
A side with title-level depth. Arsenal tend to suffocate opponents at Emirates Stadium, so Palace will need a disciplined, low block.
Away
Crystal Palace
Expect Palace to stay compact on their trip to Emirates Stadium and look for a moment rather than control the game.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Arsenal name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Palace score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Arsenal vs Palace
Arsenal take on Crystal Palace in front of their own fans, and the Wazir Win numbers lean Arsenal's way. As the London derby, form tends to count for less than usual, and we have tightened the numbers accordingly. The gap in expected goals (2.00 for Arsenal, 0.68 for Palace) is the clearest signal, and it is what produces our 68% for Arsenal. Palace's best route is to keep it level into the last half-hour, when the draw becomes a live result.
Calendar check: Arsenal and Palace
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Arsenal play 4 days after their game away at Man Utd on 27 Feb. After this, they go away at Chelsea 10 days after this one. League game 28 of 38.
Palace play 4 days after their game at home to Sunderland on 27 Feb. After this, they go at home to Fulham 10 days after this one. League game 28 of 38.
These sides already met at Selhurst Park on Sun, 27 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.
- 27 FebMan Utd vs ArsenalOld Trafford
- 27 FebPalace vs SunderlandSelhurst Park
- 03 MarArsenal vs PalaceEmirates Stadium
- 13 MarChelsea vs ArsenalStamford Bridge
- 13 MarPalace vs FulhamSelhurst Park
More Arsenal and Palace dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Palace?
Wazir Win predicts Arsenal. Our goals model gives Arsenal 68%, the draw 20% and Palace 12%, which we class as a strong lean.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?
Our likeliest scoreline is 1-0 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-0, at 14%.
What are fair odds for Arsenal vs Palace?
On our numbers: Arsenal 1.47, draw 5.00, Palace 8.33. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Arsenal vs Crystal Palace kick off in India?
01:30 IST, next day India time on Wed, 03 Mar 2027 (20:00 UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Arsenal vs Palace mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Palace 12%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Where can I watch Arsenal vs Palace?
Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Palace?
2.7 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 7% of the time.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.