Premier League 2026/27
Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction
23:00
India time
Sat, 21 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
St James' Park, Newcastle
Draw 26%
Fair odds for the pick 2.56
In 30 seconds
- Arsenal 39%, draw 26%, Newcastle 35%: a coin flip.
- Predicted score 0-1; the goals line is finely balanced (2.7 xG).
- Both teams to score: 55%.
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Wazir Win pick
- Arsenal
- UK broadcast
- Sky Sports
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Too close to call, with a whisker in favour of Arsenal. The Wazir Win goals model gives Newcastle 35%, the draw 26% and Arsenal 39%, and expects 2.7 goals in all. Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1. Kick-off: Sat, 21 Nov 2026, 23:00 IST at St James' Park.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Even
Newcastle's home crowd is worth about a fifth of a goal, which narrows the gap without erasing Arsenal's quality advantage.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (51% for the over).
Quality gap
Edge: Arsenal
Arsenal rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 26%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Expected goals
- 1.32 – 1.41
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Newcastle vs Arsenal
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 65%
Banker
risk
Double chance
Arsenal or draw
Covers two of the three results; only a Newcastle win loses.
- 55%
Smart value
risk
Both teams to score
Yes
Both sides project above a goal of expected output; BTTS lands 55% of the time for us.
- 9%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Newcastle United
Well organised and hard to play through, Newcastle usually earn results at St James' Park by winning the midfield battle.
Away
Arsenal
Arsenal are built to control games. They should hold most of the ball on their trip to St James' Park and pin Newcastle back for long periods.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Arsenal name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Newcastle score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Newcastle vs Arsenal
Arsenal head to St James' Park for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a coin flip. We project 1.32 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.41 for Arsenal; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Arsenal win 39% of them. For Newcastle, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Newcastle and Arsenal
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Newcastle play 14 days after their game away at Fulham on 07 Nov, with an international break in between, so rhythm could be rusty. After this, they go away at Brighton 8 days after this one. League game 11 of 38.
Arsenal play 14 days after their game at home to Hull on 07 Nov, with an international break in between, so rhythm could be rusty. After this, they go at home to Man City 8 days after this one. League game 11 of 38.
They meet again at Emirates Stadium on Sat, 23 Jan 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.
More Newcastle and Arsenal dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Newcastle United vs Arsenal: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Wazir Win predicts Arsenal. Our goals model gives Newcastle 35%, the draw 26% and Arsenal 39%, which we class as a coin flip.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.
What are fair odds for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
On our numbers: Newcastle 2.86, draw 3.85, Arsenal 2.56. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Newcastle United vs Arsenal kick off in India?
23:00 IST India time on Sat, 21 Nov 2026 (17:30 UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Newcastle vs Arsenal mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Newcastle 35%, draw 26%, Arsenal 39%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
We put both teams to score at 55%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals is 51%.
What would make Newcastle win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Arsenal's attack. We give Newcastle 35%.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.