Premier League 2026/27
Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction
22:00
India time
Sun, 29 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UK
Emirates Stadium, London
Draw 25%
Fair odds for the pick 2.08
In 30 seconds
- Arsenal 48%, draw 25%, Man City 27%: a coin flip.
- Predicted score 1-0; the goals line is finely balanced (2.7 xG).
- Both teams to score: 54%.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Arsenal
- UK broadcast
- Sky Sports
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Arsenal vs Man City?
Too close to call, with a whisker in favour of Arsenal. The Wazir Win goals model gives Arsenal 48%, the draw 25% and Man City 27%, and expects 2.7 goals in all. Our likeliest scoreline is 1-0. Kick-off: Sun, 29 Nov 2026, 22:00 IST at Emirates Stadium.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Arsenal
Arsenal are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (51% for the over).
Quality gap
Edge: Arsenal
Arsenal rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 25%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Arsenal vs Man City?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Expected goals
- 1.58 – 1.14
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Arsenal vs Man City
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 63%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Arsenal
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Man City win beats it.
- 71%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is the likeliest script, and four goals would be an outlier.
- 10%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Arsenal 1-0 Man City
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Arsenal
Arsenal are built to control games. They should hold most of the ball at Emirates Stadium and pin Man City back for long periods.
Away
Manchester City
A side with title-level depth. Man City tend to suffocate opponents on their trip to Emirates Stadium, so Arsenal will need a disciplined, low block.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Arsenal name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Man City score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Arsenal vs Man City
Manchester City head to Emirates Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a coin flip. We project 1.58 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.14 for Man City; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Arsenal win 48% of them. For Man City, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Arsenal and Man City
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Arsenal play 8 days after their game away at Newcastle on 21 Nov. After this, they go away at Brentford 3 days after this one, so some rotation is possible. League game 12 of 38.
Man City play 8 days after their game at home to Fulham on 21 Nov. After this, they go at home to Leeds 3 days after this one, so some rotation is possible. League game 12 of 38.
They meet again at Etihad Stadium on Sat, 30 Jan 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.
- 21 NovMan City vs FulhamEtihad Stadium
- 21 NovNewcastle vs ArsenalSt James' Park
- 29 NovArsenal vs Man CityEmirates Stadium
- 02 DecBrentford vs ArsenalGtech Community Stadium
- 02 DecMan City vs LeedsEtihad Stadium
More Arsenal and Man City dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Arsenal vs Manchester City: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Man City?
Wazir Win predicts Arsenal. Our goals model gives Arsenal 48%, the draw 25% and Man City 27%, which we class as a coin flip.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Our likeliest scoreline is 1-0 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.
What are fair odds for Arsenal vs Man City?
On our numbers: Arsenal 2.08, draw 4.00, Man City 3.70. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Arsenal vs Manchester City kick off in India?
22:00 IST India time on Sun, 29 Nov 2026 (16:30 UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Arsenal vs Man City mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 48%, draw 25%, Man City 27%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Man City?
We put both teams to score at 54%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals is 51%.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Man City?
2.7 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 7% of the time.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.