Premier League · North London derby
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal prediction
20:30
India time
Sat, 05 Dec 2026 · 15:00 UK
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Draw 27%
Fair odds for the pick 2.56
In 30 seconds
- Arsenal 39%, draw 27%, Spurs 34%: a coin flip.
- Predicted score 0-1; the goals line is finely balanced (2.5 xG).
- It is the North London derby: expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Wazir Win pick
- Arsenal
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 4.5-5.5
Who wins Spurs vs Arsenal?
Too close to call, with a whisker in favour of Arsenal. The Wazir Win goals model gives Spurs 34%, the draw 27% and Arsenal 39%, and expects 2.5 goals in all. Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1. Kick-off: Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 20:30 IST at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Even
Spurs's home crowd is worth about a fifth of a goal, which narrows the gap without erasing Arsenal's quality advantage.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Even
At 2.5 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to a toss-up (46% for the over).
Derby heat
Edge: Draw
The North London derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish closer than the table suggests.
How many goals in Spurs vs Arsenal?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Expected goals
- 1.21 – 1.31
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Spurs vs Arsenal
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 66%
Banker
risk
Double chance
Arsenal or draw
Covers two of the three results; only a Spurs win loses.
- 75%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Under 3.5
A tight game is the likeliest script, and four goals would be an outlier.
- 11%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Spurs 0-1 Arsenal
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Tottenham Hotspur
Well organised and hard to play through, Spurs usually earn results at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium by winning the midfield battle.
Away
Arsenal
Arsenal are built to control games. They should hold most of the ball on their trip to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and pin Spurs back for long periods.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Arsenal name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Spurs score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Spurs vs Arsenal
Arsenal head to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a coin flip. As the North London derby, form tends to count for less than usual, and we have tightened the numbers accordingly. We project 1.21 expected goals for Spurs and 1.31 for Arsenal; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Arsenal win 39% of them. For Spurs, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Spurs and Arsenal
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Spurs play 3 days after their game at home to Fulham on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go away at Hull 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.
Arsenal play 3 days after their game away at Brentford on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Bournemouth 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.
They meet again at Emirates Stadium on Sat, 01 May 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings.
- 02 DecSpurs vs FulhamTottenham Hotspur Stadium
- 02 DecBrentford vs ArsenalGtech Community Stadium
- 05 DecSpurs vs ArsenalTottenham Hotspur Stadium
- 12 DecHull vs SpursMKM Stadium
- 12 DecArsenal vs BournemouthEmirates Stadium
More Spurs and Arsenal dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Spurs vs Arsenal?
Wazir Win predicts Arsenal. Our goals model gives Spurs 34%, the draw 27% and Arsenal 39%, which we class as a coin flip.
What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?
Our likeliest scoreline is 0-1 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.
What are fair odds for Spurs vs Arsenal?
On our numbers: Spurs 2.94, draw 3.70, Arsenal 2.56. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal kick off in India?
20:30 IST India time on Sat, 05 Dec 2026 (15:00 UK), at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Spurs vs Arsenal mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Spurs 34%, draw 27%, Arsenal 39%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Where can I watch Spurs vs Arsenal?
Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
Will both teams score in Spurs vs Arsenal?
We put both teams to score at 51%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals is 46%.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.