Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026 · match 3 of 8
South Africa vs Bangladesh 1st ODI prediction
19:30
India time
Mon, 23 Nov 2026
Buffalo Park, East London
Fair odds for the pick 1.35
In 30 seconds
- South Africa at 74%: a strong lean (fair odds 1.35).
- Balanced pitch; South Africa projected to post the bigger total.
- South Africa have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- South Africa
- Format
- ODI · 50 overs
- Pitch
- balanced, dry
- Favours
- Balanced
Who wins the SA vs BAN 1st ODI?
Back South Africa to win the SA vs BAN 1st ODI. Wazir Win rates their chance at 74% (strong lean), with Bangladesh on 26%. Projected totals: South Africa 330, Bangladesh 300. Conditions at Buffalo Park should favour neither side. First ball: Mon, 23 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
An even contest is on the cards. Expect phase scores close to the format average, with the better-executing side winning out. Neither attack should be specially advantaged.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this surface.
Run-scoring edge
Edge: South Africa
South Africa project about 30 runs higher in the first-innings total. Over a ODI, a gap like that turns tight games into comfortable ones.
How many will South Africa and Bangladesh score?
Projected runs in each phase of the first innings, on a balanced, dry surface at Buffalo Park.
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
The Wazir Win bet slip for SA vs BAN
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 74%
Banker
risk
Match result
South Africa to win
The model's headline call. Only worth it at odds of 1.35 or longer.
- 57%
Smart value
risk
South Africa first-innings total
Over 314.5
A 314.5 line leaves a buffer of roughly 15 runs against our 330 projection.
- 23%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
Marco Jansen (South Africa)
Balances the XI. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing South Africa vs Bangladesh?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
Marco Jansen85
Balances the XI
Tristan Stubbs95
Fast starter at the top
Bangladesh
Mahmudullah94
Balances the XI
Najmul Hossain Shanto86
Fast starter at the top
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Marco Jansen is left out
We would trim South Africa by around five points, turning this into a strong lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain shortens the match
Fewer overs mean more randomness, which helps the underdog.
The story of South Africa vs Bangladesh
Match 3 of 8 is where Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026 starts to take shape. The model leans to South Africa at 74%, mostly on squad quality and how Buffalo Park has played in recent seasons. South Africa play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. Bangladesh are far from out of it at 26%, but they will need their best players to deliver at the same time.
On the toss: Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this surface.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 1st ODI
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026.
Buffalo Park in East London hosts the 1st ODI on Mon, 23 Nov 2026: fixture 3 of 8 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 2nd Test, was played 4 days before this one at SuperSport Park in Centurion, which means a travel day to East London in between. That is enough rest for both teams to pick their strongest XIs.
Up next: the 2nd ODI, 4 days after this match at St George's Park in Gqeberha.
- 19 Nov2nd Test: South Africa vs BangladeshSuperSport Park
- 23 Nov1st ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshBuffalo Park
- 27 Nov2nd ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshSt George's Park
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FAQ · 9
SA vs BAN 1st ODI: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win South Africa vs Bangladesh?
Wazir Win predicts South Africa, with a 74% win chance against 26% for Bangladesh. We class that as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a balanced, dry pitch at Buffalo Park should play.
What are fair odds for South Africa in the SA vs BAN 1st ODI?
Our 74% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.35 for South Africa and 3.85 for Bangladesh. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the SA vs BAN 1st ODI start in IST?
It is scheduled for Mon, 23 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST at Buffalo Park, East London. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Buffalo Park?
We read it as balanced, dry, which should favour neither side. An even contest is on the cards. Expect phase scores close to the format average, with the better-executing side winning out.
What should the captain do at the toss in SA vs BAN?
Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this surface. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for Bangladesh to win?
Bangladesh need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 26%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if South Africa change their best XI.
South Africa vs Bangladesh mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein South Africa ka palda bhaari hai: 74% chance, Bangladesh ka 26%. Match Mon, 23 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
East London ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch balanced, dry hai, yaani bat aur ball mein barabar ki takkar hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Who are the key players in South Africa vs Bangladesh?
Marco Jansen (South Africa, balances the xi) and Mahmudullah (Bangladesh, balances the xi). Final XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.