Premier League 2026/27
Everton vs Chelsea prediction
17:00
India time
Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Draw 24%
Fair odds for the pick 2.04
In 30 seconds
- Chelsea 49%, draw 24%, Everton 27%: a coin flip.
- Predicted score 1-2; goals expected (2.9 xG).
- Both teams to score: 57%.
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Wazir Win pick
- Chelsea
- UK broadcast
- TNT Sports
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Who wins Everton vs Chelsea?
Too close to call, with a whisker in favour of Chelsea. The Wazir Win goals model gives Everton 27%, the draw 24% and Chelsea 49%, and expects 2.9 goals in all. Our likeliest scoreline is 1-2. Kick-off: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 IST at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Even
Everton's home crowd is worth about a fifth of a goal, which narrows the gap without erasing Chelsea's quality advantage.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Goals
2.9 expected goals is above the league norm, and the over 2.5 line lands 55% of the time in our simulations.
Quality gap
Edge: Chelsea
Chelsea rate clearly higher, and the draw is only 24%. If they score first, the game state favours them heavily.
How many goals in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Expected goals
- 1.19 – 1.69
- Half-time call
- 0-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Everton vs Chelsea
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 65%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Chelsea
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Everton win beats it.
- 57%
Smart value
risk
Both teams to score
Yes
Both sides project above a goal of expected output; BTTS lands 57% of the time for us.
- 10%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Everton 1-2 Chelsea
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Everton
Expect Everton to stay compact at Hill Dickinson Stadium and look for a moment rather than control the game.
Away
Chelsea
A side with title-level depth. Chelsea tend to suffocate opponents on their trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium, so Everton will need a disciplined, low block.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Chelsea name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Everton score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Everton vs Chelsea
Chelsea head to Hill Dickinson Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a coin flip. We project 1.19 expected goals for Everton and 1.69 for Chelsea; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Chelsea win 49% of them. For Everton, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Everton and Chelsea
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Everton play 6 days after their game away at Hull on 11 Oct. After this, they go away at Arsenal 7 days after this one. League game 7 of 38.
Chelsea play 7 days after their game at home to Bournemouth on 10 Oct. After this, they go at home to Spurs 7 days after this one. League game 7 of 38.
They meet again at Stamford Bridge on Sat, 15 May 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings. UK broadcaster: TNT Sports.
- 10 OctChelsea vs BournemouthStamford Bridge
- 11 OctHull vs EvertonMKM Stadium
- 17 OctEverton vs ChelseaHill Dickinson Stadium
- 24 OctArsenal vs EvertonEmirates Stadium
- 24 OctChelsea vs SpursStamford Bridge
More Everton and Chelsea dossiers
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FAQ · 8
Everton vs Chelsea: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Wazir Win predicts Chelsea. Our goals model gives Everton 27%, the draw 24% and Chelsea 49%, which we class as a coin flip.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our likeliest scoreline is 1-2 (half-time 0-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 11%.
What are fair odds for Everton vs Chelsea?
On our numbers: Everton 3.70, draw 4.17, Chelsea 2.04. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Everton vs Chelsea kick off in India?
17:00 IST India time on Sat, 17 Oct 2026 (12:30 UK), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Everton vs Chelsea mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Chelsea aage hain: Everton 27%, draw 24%, Chelsea 49%. Sabse sambhav score 1-2 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
How many goals are expected in Everton vs Chelsea?
2.9 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 6% of the time.
Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
What would make Everton win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Chelsea's attack. We give Everton 27%.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.