Premier League · Tyne-Wear derby
Newcastle United vs Sunderland prediction
20:30
India time
Sat, 05 Dec 2026 · 15:00 UK
St James' Park, Newcastle
Draw 17%
Fair odds for the pick 1.33
In 30 seconds
- Newcastle 75%, draw 17%, Sunderland 8%: a strong lean.
- Predicted score 2-0; goals expected (2.9 xG).
- It is the Tyne-Wear derby: expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
- Predicted score
- 2-0
- Wazir Win pick
- Newcastle
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 4.5-5.5
Who wins Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Strong lean: Newcastle United. The Wazir Win goals model rates them 75% to win (fair odds 1.33), with the draw at 17%. We expect 2.9 goals and a 2-0 scoreline. Kick-off: Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 20:30 IST at St James' Park.
What will decide it?
Home advantage first, then the goals picture and the factor with the most pull on this fixture.
Home edge
Edge: Newcastle
Newcastle are the better side and at home, which our model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two advantages stack.
Goal expectancy
Edge: Goals
2.9 expected goals is above the league norm, and the over 2.5 line lands 55% of the time in our simulations.
Derby heat
Edge: Draw
The Tyne-Wear derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish closer than the table suggests.
How many goals in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our model's chance of each total, with the likeliest outcome highlighted.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 41%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Expected goals
- 2.28 – 0.62
- Half-time call
- 1-0
The Wazir Win bet slip for Newcastle vs Sunderland
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 90%
Banker
risk
Draw no bet
Newcastle
Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win beats it.
- 55%
Smart value
risk
Total goals
Over 2.5
2.9 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.
- 14%
Wildcard
risk
Correct score
Newcastle 2-0 Sunderland
The model's likeliest scoreline. Exact-score markets pay well and land rarely, so stake lightly.
How do the two teams set up?
Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Newcastle United
Well organised and hard to play through, Newcastle usually earn results at St James' Park by winning the midfield battle.
Away
Sunderland
Sunderland are a pragmatic mid-table team: solid without the ball on their trip to St James' Park, but short of the creativity to dominate.
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before kick-off.
If Newcastle name a weakened XI
Rotation or a key absence would take several points off their win chance; check line-ups an hour before kick-off.
If Sunderland score first
The favourite has to chase, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Ten men changes the expected-goals picture entirely, whichever side it hits.
The story of Newcastle vs Sunderland
Sunderland head to St James' Park for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that our model sees as a strong lean. As the Tyne-Wear derby, form tends to count for less than usual, and we have tightened the numbers accordingly. We project 2.28 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.62 for Sunderland; run that through thousands of simulated matches and Newcastle win 75% of them. For Sunderland, an early goal changes everything: chasing teams leave space, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar check: Newcastle and Sunderland
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Newcastle play 3 days after their game at home to Man Utd on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go away at Ipswich 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.
Sunderland play 3 days after their game away at Liverpool on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Forest 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.
They meet again at Stadium of Light on Sat, 01 May 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings.
- 02 DecNewcastle vs Man UtdSt James' Park
- 02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield
- 05 DecNewcastle vs SunderlandSt James' Park
- 12 DecIpswich vs NewcastlePortman Road
- 12 DecSunderland vs ForestStadium of Light
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FAQ · 8
Newcastle United vs Sunderland: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Wazir Win predicts Newcastle United. Our goals model gives Newcastle 75%, the draw 17% and Sunderland 8%, which we class as a strong lean.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Sunderland?
Our likeliest scoreline is 2-0 (half-time 1-0). The single most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 14%.
What are fair odds for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
On our numbers: Newcastle 1.33, draw 5.88, Sunderland 12.50. Anything shorter from a bookmaker carries no value by our model.
What time does Newcastle United vs Sunderland kick off in India?
20:30 IST India time on Sat, 05 Dec 2026 (15:00 UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Televised games can move, so confirm nearer the day.
Newcastle vs Sunderland mein kaun jeetega?
Wazir Win ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 75%, draw 17%, Sunderland 8%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
2.9 expected goals in total. The most likely total is 2, and a goalless draw comes up 6% of the time.
What would make Sunderland win?
An early goal, a disciplined defensive shape and a quiet day for Newcastle's attack. We give Sunderland 8%.
Where can I watch Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Indian broadcast rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings close to the day.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.