India tour of New Zealand, 2026 · match 11 of 12
New Zealand vs India 1st Test prediction
19:30
India time
Thu, 26 Nov 2026
Basin Reserve, Wellington
Fair odds for the pick 1.92
In 30 seconds
- New Zealand at 52%: a slight lean (fair odds 1.92).
- Pitch suits seamers; New Zealand projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- New Zealand
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- green, seam-friendly
- Favours
- Seamers
Who wins the NZ vs IND 1st Test?
New Zealand take this one on our numbers: 52% to 48% over India, which is a slight lean. Expect 262 from New Zealand and 260 from India at Basin Reserve, where the quicks should hold the upper hand. Play starts Thu, 26 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: New Zealand
A bowler-friendly start: hit the seam and the edges will come. Top orders that leave well outside off stump will be rewarded. New Zealand are used to exactly this kind of pitch.
Toss call
Edge: Toss winner
Bowling first is the percentage call, to get at the top order while the surface is fresh.
Series pressure
Edge: New Zealand
A win here gives New Zealand control with 1 match left, and losing would hand India momentum.
How many will New Zealand and India score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a green, seam-friendly surface at Basin Reserve.
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
The Wazir Win bet slip for NZ vs IND
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 52%
Banker
risk
Match result
New Zealand to win
The model's headline call. Only worth it at odds of 1.92 or longer.
- 62%
Smart value
risk
New Zealand day-one total
Over 247.5
A 247.5 line leaves a buffer of roughly 14 runs against our 262 projection.
- 21%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
Kane Williamson (New Zealand)
Turns fifties into hundreds. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing New Zealand vs India?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Matt Henry82
Dangerous with the new ball
Kane Williamson92
Turns fifties into hundreds
India
Mohammed Siraj93
Dangerous with the new ball
Kuldeep Yadav94
Can bowl all day
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Matt Henry is left out
We would trim New Zealand by around five points, turning this into a coin flip.
If India win the toss
On a pitch where the toss matters, that alone moves a couple of points India's way.
If rain takes out a day or more
The draw becomes the likeliest result and our win call loses most of its value.
The story of New Zealand vs India
Match 11 of 12 is where India tour of New Zealand, 2026 starts to take shape. The model leans to New Zealand at 52%, mostly on squad quality and how Basin Reserve has played in recent seasons. New Zealand play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. For India to win, they need early wickets or one innings of real substance; anything less and the favourites should control it.
On the toss: Bowling first is the percentage call, to get at the top order while the surface is fresh.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 1st Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.
Basin Reserve in Wellington hosts the 1st Test on Thu, 26 Nov 2026: fixture 11 of 12 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 5th ODI, was played 3 days before this one at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui, which means a travel day to Wellington in between. That is enough rest for both teams to pick their strongest XIs.
Up next: the 2nd Test, 4 days after this match at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.
- 23 Nov5th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
- 26 Nov1st Test: New Zealand vs IndiaBasin Reserve
- 30 Nov2nd Test: New Zealand vs IndiaHagley Oval
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FAQ · 9
NZ vs IND 1st Test: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win New Zealand vs India?
Wazir Win predicts New Zealand, with a 52% win chance against 48% for India. We class that as a slight lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a green, seam-friendly pitch at Basin Reserve should play.
What are fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?
Our 52% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.92 for New Zealand and 2.08 for India. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the NZ vs IND 1st Test start in IST?
It is scheduled for Thu, 26 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST at Basin Reserve, Wellington. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Basin Reserve?
We read it as green, seam-friendly, which should favour the quicks. A bowler-friendly start: hit the seam and the edges will come. Top orders that leave well outside off stump will be rewarded.
What should the captain do at the toss in NZ vs IND?
Bowling first is the percentage call, to get at the top order while the surface is fresh. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for India to win?
India need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 48%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if New Zealand change their best XI.
New Zealand vs India mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 52% chance, India ka 48%. Match Thu, 26 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Wellington ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch green, seam-friendly hai, yaani tez gendbazon ko shuruaat mein madad milegi. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Is it legal to bet on NZ vs IND in India?
Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.