India tour of New Zealand, 2026 · match 10 of 12
New Zealand vs India 5th ODI prediction
19:30
India time
Mon, 23 Nov 2026
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui
Fair odds for the pick 1.89
In 30 seconds
- New Zealand at 53%: a slight lean (fair odds 1.89).
- Pitch suits batters; India projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand have home conditions on their side.
- Wazir Win pick
- New Zealand
- Format
- ODI · 50 overs
- Pitch
- flat, high-scoring
- Favours
- Batters
Who wins the NZ vs IND 5th ODI?
Slight lean: New Zealand. Our model makes them 53% favourites for the 5th ODI against India at Bay Oval, a fair price of 1.89. We project New Zealand for 345 and India for 349 on a pitch that favours the batters. Start: Mon, 23 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST.
What will decide it?
The surface comes first; the other two are the factors with the most pull on this fixture.
Surface read
Edge: Even
Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears. Both sides will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Series pressure
Edge: New Zealand
A win here gives New Zealand control with 2 matches left, and losing would hand India momentum.
Batting parity
Edge: Even
The batting units grade out almost identically (4 runs apart). Look to the bowlers and the toss for the separation.
How many will New Zealand and India score?
Projected runs in each phase of the first innings, on a flat, high-scoring surface at Bay Oval.
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
The Wazir Win bet slip for NZ vs IND
Three selections at rising risk. Each ring is our probability for that selection.
- 53%
Banker
risk
Match result
New Zealand to win
Our most likely outcome. If the bookmaker's price is shorter than 1.89, the value has gone.
- 58%
Smart value
risk
New Zealand first-innings total
Over 330.5
Our projection sits near 345, comfortably clear of 330.5, so a slow start can still land it.
- 18%
Wildcard
risk
Top team batter
Matt Henry (New Zealand)
Trusted at the end of the innings. A long-odds market, so treat it as a small-stake extra.
Who can swing New Zealand vs India?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to change the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Matt Henry84
Trusted at the end of the innings
Daryl Mitchell89
Balances the XI
India
Virat Kohli87
Steady hand in a chase
Kuldeep Yadav83
Takes wickets through the middle
What would change our mind?
The developments we would react to before the first ball.
If Matt Henry is left out
We would trim New Zealand by around five points, turning this into a coin flip.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain shortens the match
Fewer overs mean more randomness, which helps the underdog.
The story of New Zealand vs India
With 2 games of India tour of New Zealand, 2026 still to follow, this match 10 can tilt the series. Our read is that New Zealand have the stronger unit for a flat, high-scoring ODI pitch, and the model reflects that at 53%. New Zealand play at home, which our numbers credit with a few percentage points. For India to win, they need early wickets or one innings of real substance; anything less and the favourites should control it.
On the toss: Whatever the call, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar check: 5th ODI
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.
Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui hosts the 5th ODI on Mon, 23 Nov 2026: fixture 10 of 12 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 4th ODI, was played 4 days before this one at this same venue, so both teams already have a read on the surface. That is enough rest for both teams to pick their strongest XIs.
Up next: the 1st Test, 3 days after this match at Basin Reserve in Wellington.
Also at Bay Oval on the Wazir Win calendar: 4th ODI: New Zealand vs India (19 Nov), 1st Test: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka (12 Feb) (2 fixtures in all).
- 19 Nov4th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
- 23 Nov5th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
- 26 Nov1st Test: New Zealand vs IndiaBasin Reserve
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FAQ · 9
NZ vs IND 5th ODI: your questions answered
Straight answers to the questions fans ask us most.
Still unsure? Ask the Wazir Win team
Who is predicted to win New Zealand vs India?
Wazir Win predicts New Zealand, with a 53% win chance against 47% for India. We class that as a slight lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, high-scoring pitch at Bay Oval should play.
What are fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 5th ODI?
Our 53% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.89 for New Zealand and 2.13 for India. A bookmaker price shorter than that means the bet has no value on our numbers.
When does the NZ vs IND 5th ODI start in IST?
It is scheduled for Mon, 23 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Series dates sometimes shift, so check on the morning of the match.
How will the pitch play at Bay Oval?
We read it as flat, high-scoring, which should favour the batters. Batters will trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need clear plans, because anything over-pitched or short and wide disappears.
What should the captain do at the toss in NZ vs IND?
Whatever the call, both teams should get the runs on offer. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the 19:30 IST start, when both XIs are confirmed.
What would it take for India to win?
India need early wickets or a dominant individual innings. We give them 47%, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if New Zealand change their best XI.
New Zealand vs India mein kiski jeet pakki hai?
Pakki koi nahi, lekin Wazir Win ke model mein New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 53% chance, India ka 47%. Match Mon, 23 Nov 2026, 19:30 IST shuru hoga. Yeh anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Mount Maunganui ki pitch kaisi rahegi?
Humari report ke hisaab se pitch flat, high-scoring hai, yaani ballebazon ke liye pitch achhi hai, bada score sambhav hai. Toss match se qareeb aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
What happens to bets if rain affects NZ vs IND?
Reduced overs bring in DLS targets, and too few overs means a no-result. Each bookmaker's rules decide which markets stand. Check the Mount Maunganui forecast before you play.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from Wazir Win's own model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and only a bookmaker's live odds settle a bet. 18+ only. Set a budget before you play and play responsibly.